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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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