A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
